An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: The collapse of a critical Atlantic current can no longer be considered a low-likelihood event, a study has concluded, making deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions even more urgent to avoid the catastrophic impact. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is a major part of the global climate system. It brings sun-warmed tropical water to Europe and the Arctic, where it cools and sinks to form a deep return current. The Amoc was already known to be at its weakest in 1,600 years as a result of the climate crisis. Climate models recently indicated that a collapse before 2100 was unlikely but the new analysis examined models that were run for longer, to 2300 and 2500. These show the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades, but that the collapse itself may not happen until 50 to 100 years later. The research found that if carbon emissions continued to rise, 70% of the model runs led to collapse, while an intermediate level of emissions resulted in collapse in 37% of the models. Even in the case of low future emissions, an Amoc shutdown happened in 25% of the models. Scientists have warned previously that Amoc collapse must be avoided "at all costs." It would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50cm to already rising sea levels. The new results are "quite shocking, because I used to say that the chance of Amoc collapsing as a result of global warming was less than 10%," said Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who was part of the study team. "Now even in a low-emission scenario, sticking to the Paris agreement, it looks like it may be more like 25%. "These numbers are not very certain, but we are talking about a matter of risk assessment where even a 10% chance of an Amoc collapse would be far too high," added Rahmstorf. "We found that the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable is probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so. That is quite a shocking finding as well and why we have to act really fast in cutting down emissions." "Observations in the deep [far North Atlantic] already show a downward trend over the past five to 10 years, consistent with the models' projections," said Prof Sybren Drijfhout, at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, who was also part of the team. "Even in some intermediate and low-emission scenarios, the Amoc slows drastically by 2100 and completely shuts off thereafter. That shows the shutdown risk is more serious than many people realize." The findings have been published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

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Deforestation has killed more than half a million people in the tropics over the past two decades as a result of heat-related illness, a study has found. The Guardian: Land clearance is raising the temperature in the rainforests of the Amazon, Congo and south-east Asia because it reduces shade, diminishes rainfall and increases the risk of fire, the authors of the paper found. Deforestation is responsible for more than a third of the warming experienced by people living in the affected regions, which is on top of the effect of global climate disruption. About 345 million people across the tropics suffered from this localised, deforestation-caused warming between 2001 and 2020. For 2.6 million of them, the additional heating added 3C to their heat exposure. In many cases, this was deadly. The researchers estimated that warming due to deforestation accounted for 28,330 annual deaths over that 20-year period.

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Air pollution from oil and gas causes more than 90,000 premature deaths and sickens hundreds of thousands of people across the US each year, a new study shows, with disproportionately high impacts on communities of color. From a report: More than 10,000 annual pre-term births are attributable to fine particulate matter from oil and gas, the authors found, also linking 216,000 annual childhood-onset asthma cases to the sector's nitrogen dioxide emissions and 1,610 annual lifetime cancer cases to its hazardous air pollutants. The highest number of impacts are seen in California, Texas, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, while the per-capita incidences are highest in New Jersey, Washington DC, New York, California and Maryland.

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Living through extreme heat waves can accelerate your rate of aging, according to research published Monday. From a report: Scientists analyzed 15 years' worth of health data from nearly 25,000 adults in Taiwan and found that two years of exposure to heat waves could speed up a person's so-called biological aging by eight to 12 extra days. It may not sound like a lot, but this number builds over time, said Cui Guo, an assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong who led the study, which was published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change. "This small number actually matters," she said. "This was a study of a two-year exposure, but we know heat waves have actually been occurring for decades." The research comes as human-induced climate change is making heat waves more intense and long-lasting. The West Coast of the United States is suffering from sweltering temperatures while Iran is experiencing searing heat. Record-breaking temperatures punished Europe, Japan and Korea earlier this month. France recently experienced its second heat wave of the summer, sparking a national debate over air-conditioning.

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"A fierce dust storm hit the Black Rock Desert on the eve of its annual Burning Man festival," reports the San Francisco Chronicle, "causing at least four minor injuries and damaging campsites that had been set up early." [Alternate URL] "Winds of up to 50 mph stirred up the lake bed's alkaline dust so ferociously that participants in the annual art and culture festival reported not being able to see beyond a foot... " The dust storm arrived Saturday evening after strong thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada drifted off the mountains and whipped up strong winds in the Nevada desert... At 5:14 p.m. Saturday, the weather service issued a dust storm advisory for Black Rock City and warned of "a wall of blowing dust coming off the Smoke Creek and Black Rock Desert playa areas is tracking northward at around 30 mph." The agency warned of visibility less than 1 mile and wind gusts exceeding 45 mph. A weather station at Black Rock City Airport measured gusts up to 52 mph at 5:50 p.m... ["We saw structures being ripped and torn down by the wind speeds even though we buttoned everything down as best as we could..." one Burner told the Chronicle.] Camp residents posted a slew of videos to social media featuring dust tornadoes, destroyed campsites, and fellow campers struggling to hold onto bucking canvases as the wind threatened to rip them away. "Every popup canopy I've seen has been destroyed," one Burner wrote on Reddit... ["Make sure you carry your particle/dust mask and goggles with you when you venture out on playa!" warns Burning Man's official weather page.] Even after Saturday's storm, Burners won't be out of the woods from hazardous weather. The weather service warned of possible monsoon thunderstorms and heavy rain Sunday through Wednesday, raising concerns that this year's festival could echo disastrous 2023 conditions, when heavy storms stranded tens of thousands of attendees amid thick mud. "It's becoming increasingly likely that we could see an even greater flash flood threat," the weather service wrote in an online forecast. "If you're on the playa at the Black Rock Desert, you may very well be in for a muddy mess Monday through Wednesday." Slow-moving storms could drop an inch of rain or more in a short period. "Still, gates to the festival had opened by Sunday morning," the article adds, "with organizers cautioning new arrivals to 'drive safely!'" Burning Man's official weather page currently links to a National Weather Service page with a "Flood Watch" warning through 9 p.m. Sunday, and also predicting a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.

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"The ultimate test of climate projections is to compare them with what has played out..." says earth sciences professor Torbjörn Törnqvist, lead author on a new study published in the open-access journal Earth's Future (published by the American Geophysical Union). But after "decades of observations," he says his researchers "were quite amazed how good those early projections were, especially when you think about how crude the models were back then, compared to what is available now." "For anyone who questions the role of humans in changing our climate, here is some of the best proof that we have understood for decades what is really happening, and that we can make credible projections...." A new era of monitoring global sea-level change took off when satellites were launched in the early 1990s to measure the height of the ocean surface. This showed that the rate of global sea-level rise since that time has averaged about one eighth of an inch per year. Only more recently, it became possible to detect that the rate of global sea-level rise is accelerating. When NASA researchers demonstrated in October 2024 that the rate has doubled during this 30-year period, the time was right to compare this finding with projections that were made during the mid-1990s, independent of the satellite measurements. In 1996, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published an assessment report soon after the satellite-based sea-level measurements had started. It projected that the most likely amount of global sea-level rise over the next 30 years would be almost 8 centimeters (3 inches), remarkably close to the 9 centimeters that has occurred. But it also underestimated the role of melting ice sheets by more than 2 centimeters (about 1 inch). At the time, little was known about the role of warming ocean waters and how that could destabilize marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from below. Ice flow from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the ocean has also been faster than foreseen. "The findings provide confidence in model-based climate projections," according to the paper. Again, its two key points: The largest disparities between projections and observations were due to underestimated dynamic mass loss of ice sheets Comparison of past projections with subsequent observations gives confidence in future climate projections Thanks to Slashdot reader Mr. Dollar Ton for sharing the news.

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alternative_right shares a report from Phys.org: All the critical minerals the U.S. needs annually for energy, defense and technology applications are already being mined at existing U.S. facilities, according to a new analysis published in the journal Science. The catch? These minerals, such as cobalt, lithium, gallium and rare earth elements like neodymium and yttrium, are currently being discarded as tailings of other mineral streams like gold and zinc, said Elizabeth Holley, associate professor of mining engineering at Colorado School of Mines and lead author of the new paper. To conduct the analysis, Holley and her team built a database of annual production from federally permitted metal mines in the U.S. They used a statistical resampling technique to pair these data with the geochemical concentrations of critical minerals in ores, recently compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey, Geoscience Australia and the Geologic Survey of Canada. Using this approach, Holley's team was able to estimate the quantities of critical minerals being mined and processed every year at U.S. metal mines but not being recovered. Instead, these valuable minerals are ending up as discarded tailings that must be stored and monitored to prevent environmental contamination. The analysis looks at a total of 70 elements used in applications ranging from consumer electronics like cell phones to medical devices to satellites to renewable energy to fighter jets and shows that unrecovered byproducts from other U.S. mines could meet the demand for all but two -- platinum and palladium. Among the elements included in the analysis are: - Cobalt (Co): The lustrous bluish-gray metal, a key component in electric car batteries, is a byproduct of nickel and copper mining. Recovering less than 10% of the cobalt currently being mined and processed but not recovered would be more than enough to fuel the entire U.S. battery market. - Germanium (Ge): The brittle silvery-white semi-metal used for electronics and infrared optics, including sensors on missiles and defense satellites, is present in zinc and molybdenum mines. If the U.S. recovered less than 1% of the germanium currently mined and processed but not recovered from U.S. mines, it would not have to import any germanium to meet industry needs.

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An anonymous reader shares a report: Expect record-breaking temperatures to change the workplace, the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned today in a new report. When workers don't have adequate protections from heat stress, their health and productivity suffer. It's a risk employers and lawmakers have to take more seriously if they want to keep workers safe and businesses prosperous, the agencies say. That means finding ways to adapt in a warming world, and paying close attention to groups that might be more vulnerable than others. [...] More than 2.4 billion people around the world -- 71 percent of the working population -- experience workplace heat stress, according to estimates from the ILO. Each year, 22.85 million occupational injuries and 18,970 fatalities are linked to excessive heat at work. The report also says that worker productivity falls 2-3 percent with every degree increase above 20 degrees Celsius in wet-bulb globe temperature, a measure that takes humidity and other environmental factors into account.

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Light pollution extends the active hours of birds worldwide by nearly an hour, fundamentally altering the natural rhythms of over 500 species across multiple continents. Analysis of 60 million bird call recordings reveals that artificial lighting causes birds to begin vocalizing 20 minutes earlier each morning and continue 30 minutes later each evening. The effect varies significantly by species anatomy and behavior. Birds with proportionally larger eyes experience the strongest responses, with American Robins in highly illuminated areas beginning their songs up to two hours before sunrise. Species nesting in tree cavities or enclosed spaces show minimal changes, as opaque barriers shield them from artificial light. The research, drawing from BirdWeather devices deployed globally by birdwatchers, is the largest analysis of light pollution's biological impacts to date.

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Solar panels in space could cut Europe's terrestrial renewable energy needs by 80% by 2050, a study has found. The Guardian: Using a detailed computer model of the continent's future power grid, the researchers found that a system of space-based panels designed by Nasa could reduce the cost of the whole European power system by as much as 15%. It could also cut battery use by more than two-thirds. The study, led by researchers at King's College London, is the first to assess the possible impact of space solar energy on Europe. The space-based solar power (SBSP) panels that yielded the positive results uses a heliostat design. The design, which the system imitates, uses mirror-like reflectors to collect sunlight in orbit. The sunlight is then transmitted to stations on Earth and converted to electricity before it is delivered to an energy grid. The computer model of the continent's power grid spans 33 countries, and simulates electricity demand, generation and storage to identify the lowest-cost option to meet Europe's electricity needs.

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The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005. From a report: The finding is surprising, the researchers say, given that carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning have continued to rise and trap ever more heat over that time. They said natural variations in ocean currents that limit ice melting had probably balanced out the continuing rise in global temperatures. However, they said this was only a temporary reprieve and melting was highly likely to start again at about double the long-term rate at some point in the next five to 10 years. The findings do not mean Arctic sea ice is rebounding. Sea ice area in September, when it reaches its annual minimum, has halved since 1979, when satellite measurements began. The climate crisis remains "unequivocally real," the scientists said, and the need for urgent action to avoid the worst impacts remains unchanged. The natural variation causing the slowdown is probably the multi-decadal fluctuations in currents in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, which change the amount of warmed water flowing into the Arctic. The Arctic is still expected to see ice-free conditions later in the century, harming people and wildlife in the region and boosting global heating by exposing the dark, heat-absorbing ocean.

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Global fertility rates have fallen from five children per woman in the mid-twentieth century to 2.2 today, with approximately half of countries now below the 2.1 replacement threshold, according to data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Mexico's rate dropped from seven children in 1970 to 1.6 in 2023. South Korea recorded 0.75 in 2024, down from 4.5 in 1970. The IHME projects over three-quarters of countries will fall below replacement level by 2050. A UN survey of 14,000 people across 14 countries found 39% cited financial limitations as a primary reason for not having children. China's population peaked around 2022 at 1.4 billion, while the U.S. Census Bureau predicts America's population will peak in 2080 at 370 million.

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England has declared a "nationally significant" water shortage as reservoirs dropped to 67.7% capacity, their lowest levels in at least a decade. The UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology warned of exceptionally low river flows while groundwater continues dwindling across the country. Hosepipe bans now affect all of England, with additional restrictions probable in coming months. Water companies lose approximately one trillion litres annually through leaky pipes -- 20% of all treated water -- while the annual pipe replacement rate remains at 0.05%. No new reservoir has been built in 30 years despite population growth. Government forecasts project England's public water supply could fall short by 5 billion litres daily by 2055 without urgent infrastructure investment. The economic cost of water scarcity could reach $11.48 billion over this parliament, according to thinktank Public First.

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Scientists in Svalbard warn Arctic glaciers are in "terminal" decline, with microbe-driven biological darkening accelerating ice melt and potentially triggering major climate feedback loops. The Guardian reports: Recent research implicates snow and ice-dwelling microbes in positive feedback loops that can accelerate melting. With more than 70% of the planet's freshwater stored in ice and snow -- and billions of lives sustained by glacier-fed rivers -- this has profound implications everywhere. Yet not all polar microbes amplify global heating. Emerging evidence suggests that certain populations are -- for now -- applying a brake to methane emissions. [...] Microbes that live in surface ice and snow produce dark-colored pigments to harness sunlight and shield themselves from damaging UV light. They also trap dark-colored dust and debris. Together, these factors darken snow and ice, causing it to absorb more heat and melt faster -- a process known as "biological darkening." Microbes also respond to global changes, such as increased nutrients from air pollution, wildfire smoke or wind-blown dust from receding glaciers and expanding drylands. "The snowpack chemistry is now different to preindustrial era snow," Edwards says. Rising temperatures and longer melt seasons caused by global heating further accelerate the growth of ice-darkening microbes. Together, these factors have the potential to trigger an amplifying positive feedback loop: ice-darkening microbes nudge up temperatures and accelerate melt, exposing more nutrient-rich debris that encourage the growth of yet more microbes, which darken the surface further still. Each summer, a biologically darkened zone, visible from space, covering at least 100,000 sq km, appears on the south-western part of the Greenland ice sheet. According to a 2020 study, microbes there are responsible for 4.4 to 6.0-gigatons of runoff, representing up to 13% of total melt, from an ice mass that holds enough water to raise global sea levels by more than 7 meters. These effects are acknowledged in IPCC reports but not yet incorporated into climate projection models. Across the European Alps, Himalayas, central Asia and beyond, at least 2 billion people depend on glacial meltwater for drinking water, agriculture and hydropower. Yet even if the world meets Paris targets, half these glaciers will not survive this century.

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Croatia has extended its digital nomad visa from one year to up to three years, allowing non-EU residents and their close family members to live and work remotely in the country. CNBC reports: A digital nomad visa is a short-term permit that allows individuals to stay in a country for an extended period and work remotely. The length of time a nomad can stay varies from place to place but most countries allow for six months to a year -- unless you have your eye on Croatia. Recently, the Balkan country announced it an update its digital nomad visa, which will allow non-EU residents to stay for up to three years. The visa also permits close family members of a digital nomad to join them. Croatia's digital nomad visa website states that close family members also include partners or non-married couples who have been together for longer than three years without children, or for less time if they do have children together. Madrid Sartoretto believes that Croatia's expansion of its digital nomad program is a sign that the country is trying to attract more talent and compete with neighboring countries and their offerings. "I think they are competing with other countries that are in the same region, like Estonia and Romania, that also attract a lot of digital nomads. If you give more benefits to people to come to your country, then you attract more talent. It's all about competition now," she adds. For those looking to apply for Croatia's digital nomad visa, Dr. Madrid Sartoretto says the country offers a low cost of living but still needs to improve its infrastructure, like more reliable internet speeds. "If you compare internet speed and reliability to countries like Romania, which has one of the fastest speeds in the world, Croatia needs to improve its infrastructure," she adds. To apply for Croatia's digital nomad visa online, applicants must provide proof that they work outside of Croatia. Additionally, they must provide a copy of a valid travel document, proof of health insurance, proof of address in Croatia, and a minimum monthly income of 3,295 euros or $3,855 USD. For proof of income, applicants can submit a bank statement showing the total amount required, a bank statement demonstrating regular income, or pay slips for at least six months. Applicants must also send evidence that they have not been convicted of criminal offences in their home country or the country in which they have resided for more than a year immediately before arriving in Croatia.

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The African Union has endorsed the "Correct The Map" campaign, urging governments and global institutions to replace the distorted 16th-century Mercator projection with the Equal Earth map that more accurately represents Africa's true size. Reuters reports: "It might seem to be just a map, but in reality, it is not," AU Commission deputy chairperson Selma Malika Haddadi told Reuters, saying the Mercator fostered a false impression that Africa was "marginal," despite being the world's second-largest continent by area, with 54 nations and over a billion people. Such stereotypes influence media, education and policy, she said. Criticism of the Mercator map is not new, but the 'Correct The Map' campaign led by advocacy groups Africa No Filter and Speak Up Africa has revived the debate, urging organizations to adopt the 2018 Equal Earth projection, which tries to reflect countries' true sizes. "The current size of the map of Africa is wrong," Moky Makura, executive director of Africa No Filter, said. "It's the world's longest misinformation and disinformation campaign, and it just simply has to stop." Fara Ndiaye, co-founder of Speak Up Africa, said the Mercator affected Africans' identity and pride, especially children who might encounter it early in school. "We're actively working on promoting a curriculum where the Equal Earth projection will be the main standard across all (African) classrooms," Ndiaye said, adding she hoped it would also be the one used by global institutions, including Africa-based ones. [...] The Mercator projection is still widely used, including by schools and tech companies. Google Maps switched from Mercator on desktop to a 3D globe view in 2018, though users can still switch back to the Mercator if they prefer. On the mobile app, however, the Mercator projection remains the default. 'Correct The Map' wants organizations like the World Bank and the United Nations to adopt the Equal Earth map. A World Bank spokesperson said they already use the Winkel-Tripel or Equal Earth for static maps and are phasing out Mercator on web maps.

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Negotiations on a global treaty to end plastic pollution are drawing to a close Thursday, as nations remain deadlocked over whether to tackle the exponential growth of plastic production. From a report: A draft of the treaty released Wednesday wouldn't limit plastic production or address chemicals used in plastic products. Instead, it's centered on proposals where there's broad agreement -- such as reducing the number of problematic plastic products that often enter the environment and are difficult to recycle, promoting the redesign of plastic products so they can be recycled and reused, and improving waste management. It asks nations to make commitments to ending plastic pollution, rather than imposing global, legally-binding rules. French President Emmanuel Macron said the "lack of ambition" in the draft treaty was unacceptable, and that agreeing to a global treaty against plastic pollution "is our opportunity to make a difference."

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