Economic models have systematically underestimated how global heating will affect people's wealth, according to a new study that finds 4C warming will make the average person 40% poorer -- an almost four-fold increase on some estimates. The Guardian: The study by Australian scientists suggests average per person GDP across the globe will be reduced by 16% even if warming is kept to 2C above pre-industrial levels. This is a much greater reduction than previous estimates, which found the reduction would be 1.4%. Scientists now estimate global temperatures will rise by 2.1C even if countries hit short-term and long-term climate targets. Criticisms have mounted in recent years that a set of economic tools known as integrated assessment models (IAM) -- used to guide how much governments should invest in cutting greenhouse gas emissions -- have failed to capture major risks from climate change, particularly extreme weather events. The new study, in the journal Environmental Research Letters, took one of the most popular economic models and enhanced it with climate change forecasts to capture the impacts of extreme weather events across global supply chains.

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The Washington Post reports that after months of polar darkness, the extent of sea ice blanketing the Arctic this winter "fell to the lowest level on record, researchers announced this week... the smallest maximum extent in the 47-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. "Since then, the ice has already begun to melt again." "Sea ice is acting like the old canary in the coal mine," Dartmouth University geophysicist Don Perovich said. "It's saying loud and clear that warming is occurring...." In the summer, when the sun's radiation shines down on the Arctic for 24 hours a day, the ice acts as a shield, reflecting more than half of the light that hits it back into space.... With so little sea ice in the Arctic this year, more sunlight will be able to reach the open ocean, which absorbs more than 90 percent of the radiation that hits it. This will further warm the region, accelerating ice melt and exposing even more water to the light. This feedback loop helps explain the rapid warming of the Arctic, and it is expected to lead to a complete lack of summer sea ice in the region within decades, [said explained Melinda Webster, a sea ice scientist at the University of Washington]. The consequences would be dire for seals, polar bears and other wildlife, which depend on a stable sea ice platform to birth their young and hunt for food. It would also expose miles of coastline to pounding ocean waves, accelerating the erosion that threatens to tip some communities into the sea. But the effects will also be felt in places far from the poles, Perovich said. Studies suggest that a complete loss of Arctic sea ice would raise global temperatures as much as adding a trillion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Changes in the Arctic could also affect the jet stream, the river of winds that flows through the upper atmosphere, contributing to more extreme weather around the globe. "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic," Perovich said. Earlier this year sea ice also fell 30% below the amount typical in the Antarctic prior to 2010, the researchers report. The total amount of sea ice on earth has now reached an all-time low, declining by more than a million square miles (2.5 million square kilometers) below the pre-2010 average. "Altogether, Earth is missing an area of sea ice large enough to cover the entire continental United States east of the Mississippi."

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sciencehabit quotes a report from Science.org: Whales sing, orcas squeal, and sea turtles croak. But sharks are more the strong, silent type. Now, researchers report the first evidence that sharks make sounds, too, described today in Royal Society Open Science. The animals may be making the sounds -- a series of clicking noises -- by snapping their flat rows of teeth, which are blunt for crushing prey. The sharks can hear mostly low-frequency noise, and the clicks they emit are higher pitched, which suggests they are not for communicating with other rigs. It's possible they are a defensive tactic. Marine mammals that eat rigs, such as leopard seals, can hear in the frequency range of the rig clicks, but the researchers question whether a few clicks would deter an attack. The sounds might be part of their response to being startled, the team says.

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An anonymous reader quotes a report from Gizmodo: Scientists scrutinizing the seafloor beneath a calving iceberg found a remarkable array of living creatures, switching up notions of how the giant chunks of ice affect their immediate environs. The scientists investigated a region of seafloor recently exposed by the calving of a gigantic iceberg -- A-84 -- which is as large as Chicago. The team found a surprisingly vibrant community of critters on the seafloor below where A-84 was once attached to an ice shelf attached to Antarctica. Without the 197-square-mile (510-square-kilometer) iceberg in the way, the team was able to scrutinize the seafloor at depths of 4,265 feet (1,300 meters) using the remotely operated vehicle (ROV) SuBastian. The team found large corals and sponges supporting other lifeforms, including icefish, giant sea spiders, and octopus. [...] With the icebergs covering the seafloor, organisms below the shelf cannot get nutrients for survival from the surface. The team hypothesized that ocean currents are a critical driver for life beneath the ice sheets. The team also collected data on the larger ice sheet, whose shrinking size spells concern for the animals that live beneath it.

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The devastating impacts of the climate crisis reached new heights in 2024, with scores of unprecedented heatwaves, floods and storms across the globe, according to the UN's World Meteorological Organization. From a report: The WMO's report on 2024, the hottest year on record, sets out a trail of destruction from extreme weather that took lives, demolished buildings and ravaged vital crops. More than 800,000 people were displaced and made homeless, the highest yearly number since records began in 2008. The report lists 151 unprecedented extreme weather events in 2024, meaning they were worse than any ever recorded in the region. Heatwaves in Japan left hundreds of thousands of people struck down by heatstroke. Soaring temperatures during heatwaves peaked at 49.9C at Carnarvon in Western Australia, 49.7C in the city of Tabas in Iran, and 48.5C in a nationwide heatwave in Mali. Record rains in Italy led to floods, landslides and electricity blackouts; torrents destroyed thousands of homes in Senegal; and flash floods in Pakistan and Brazil caused major crop losses. Storms were also supercharged by global heating in 2024, with an unprecedented six typhoons in under a month hitting the Philippines. Hurricane Helene was the strongest ever recorded to strike the Big Bend region of Florida in the US, while Vietnam was hit by Super Typhoon Yagi, affecting 3.6 million people. Many more unprecedented events will have passed unrecorded.

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Prolonged exposure to extreme heat accelerates biological aging in older adults, increasing the risk of age-related illnesses, according to research published in Science Advances. In a nationally representative study of 3,686 U.S. adults over age 56, scientists found that long-term exposure to high heat days was associated with accelerated epigenetic aging - molecular changes that affect how genes function without altering DNA itself. Researchers from the University of Southern California discovered that individuals living in areas where heat index values regularly exceed 90F showed signs of being biologically older than those in cooler regions, even after controlling for factors like wealth, education, and lifestyle habits. Six-year cumulative heat exposure linked to as much as 2.48 years of accelerated aging in one measurement.

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The Washington Post reports: Oceans last year reached their highest levels in three decades — with the rate of global sea level rise increasing around 35% higher than expected, according to a NASA-led analysis published Thursday... Last year's rate of average global sea level rise was 0.23 inches per year, higher than the expected 0.17 inches per year, NASA said in a news release. The rate of global sea level rise follows a trend of rapidly increasing rates over the past 30 years. From 1993 to 2023, the rate of global sea level rise doubled, increasing from 0.08 inches per year to 0.18 inches, another NASA-led study showed. Overall, the global sea level has climbed by 4 inches since 1993. More details from ABC News: Climate change was a major driver to an unexpected level of sea level rise in 2024, according to a new NASA analysis... The majority of the difference between predicted and actual sea level rise was attributed to thermal expansion — or the ocean waters expanding as they warm, researchers said. An unusual amount of ocean warming, combined with meltwater from land-based ice such as glaciers, led to the increase of sea level rise last year, according to NASA. About two-thirds of sea level rise in recent years has resulted from the melting of ice sheets and glaciers, with a third coming from thermal expansion, according to NASA. In 2024, those metrics flipped, with two-thirds of the rise attributed to expanding ocean water and one-third attributed to contributions from melting ice. "With 2024 as the warmest year on record, Earth's expanding oceans are following suit, reaching their highest levels in three decades," said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, head of physical oceanography programs and the Integrated Earth System Observatory at NASA... Human-amplified climate change is the primary cause for present-day rising sea levels, climate research shows.

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"A new four-lane highway cutting through tens of thousands of acres of protected Amazon rainforest is being built for the COP30 climate summit," reports the BBC, "in the Brazilian city of Belém." The highway will ease traffic into the city, which will host over 50,000 people at the conference this November: The state government touts the highway's "sustainable" credentials, but some locals and conservationists are outraged at the environmental impact... Along the partially built road, lush rainforest towers on either side — a reminder of what was once there. Logs are piled high in the cleared land which stretches more than 13km (8 miles) through the rainforest into Belém. Diggers and machines carve through the forest floor, paving over wetland to surface the road which will cut through a protected area... The road leaves two disconnected areas of protected forest. Scientists are concerned it will fragment the ecosystem and disrupt the movement of wildlife... The state government of Pará had touted the idea of this highway, known as Avenida Liberdade, as early as 2012, but it had repeatedly been shelved because of environmental concerns. Now a host of infrastructure projects have been resurrected or approved to prepare the city for the COP summit. But on the bright side, Adler Silveira, the state government's infrastructure secretary, said the highway would have wildlife crossings for animals to pass over, as well as climate-friendly bike lanes and solar-powered lighting...

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Breakthrough Energy, the climate group founded by Bill Gates, has laid off dozens of employees in the U.S. and Europe, eliminating its public policy and partnerships teams as it shifts away from advocacy work. Its investment and grantmaking divisions will remain unaffected. The Detroit News reports: Breakthrough Energy is an umbrella organization founded by Gates that houses various initiatives aimed at accelerating the clean energy transition. It also encompasses Breakthrough Energy Ventures, one of the biggest investors in early-stage climate technologies with stakes in more than 120 companies, as well as a grantmaking program for early-seed stage company founders and Breakthrough Catalyst, a funding platform focused on emergent climate technologies. None of those divisions of the group were impacted by cuts, which were reported earlier by the New York Times. [...] "In the United States especially, the conversation about climate has been sidetracked by politics," Gates wrote in the introduction to his 2021 book. "Some days, it can seem as if we have little hope of getting anything done." The climate pullback is happening at the same time as the US cuts foreign aid, a field where Gates is also a major donor. His nonprofit, the Gates Foundation, operates with a budget of billions and has a strong focus on overseas development. "Bill Gates remains as committed as ever to advancing the clean energy innovations needed to address climate change," a Breakthrough Energy spokesperson said in an emailed statement. "His work in this area will continue and is focused on helping drive reliable affordable, clean energy solutions that will enable people everywhere to thrive." On Wednesday, the EPA announced the agency will "undertake 31 historic actions in the greatest and most consequential day of deregulation in U.S. history..."

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An anonymous reader quotes a report from TechCrunch: There's a power crunch looming as AI and cloud providers ramp up data center construction. But a new report suggests that a solution lies beneath their foundations. Advanced geothermal power could supply nearly two-thirds of new data center demand by 2030, according to an analysis by the Rhodium Group. The additions would quadruple the amount of geothermal power capacity in the U.S. -- from 4 gigawatts to about 16 gigawatts -- while costing the same or less than what data center operators pay today. In the western U.S., where geothermal resources are more plentiful, the technology could provide 100% of new data center demand. Phoenix, for example, could add 3.8 gigawatts of data center capacity without building a single new conventional power plant. Geothermal resources have enormous potential to provide consistent power. Historically, geothermal power plants have been limited to places where Earth's heat seeps close to the surface. But advanced geothermal techniques could unlock 90 gigawatts of clean power in the U.S. alone, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. [...] Because geothermal power has very low running costs, its price is competitive with data centers' energy costs today, the Rhodium report said. When data centers are sited similarly to how they are today, a process that typically takes into account proximity to fiber optics and major metro areas, geothermal power costs just over $75 per megawatt hour. But when developers account for geothermal potential in their siting, the costs drop significantly, down to around $50 per megawatt hour. The report assumes that new generating capacity would be "behind the meter," which is what experts call power plants that are hooked up directly to a customer, bypassing the grid. Wait times for new power plants to connect to the grid can stretch on for years. As a result, behind the meter arrangements have become more appealing for data center operators who are scrambling to build new capacity.

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Nearly every country on Earth has dirtier air than doctors recommend breathing, a report has found. From a report: Only seven countries met the World Health Organization's guidelines for tiny toxic particles known as PM2.5 last year, according to analysis from the Swiss air quality technology company IQAir. Australia, New Zealand and Estonia were among the handful of countries with a yearly average of no more than 5ug of PM2.5 per cubic metre, along with Iceland and some small island states. The most polluted countries were Chad, Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and India. PM2.5 levels in all five countries were at least 10 times higher than guideline limits in 2024, the report found, stretching as much as 18 times higher than recommended levels in Chad. Doctors say there are no safe levels of PM2.5, which is small enough to slip into the bloodstream and damage organs throughout the body, but have estimated millions of lives could be saved each year by following their guidelines. Dirty air is the second-biggest risk factor for dying after high blood pressure.

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An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: The pollution of the planet by microplastics is significantly cutting food supplies by damaging the ability of plants to photosynthesize, according to a new assessment. The analysis estimates that between 4% and 14% of the world's staple crops of wheat, rice and maize is being lost due to the pervasive particles. It could get even worse, the scientists said, as more microplastics pour into the environment. About 700 million people were affected by hunger in 2022. The researchers estimated that microplastic pollution could increase the number at risk of starvation by another 400 million in the next two decades, calling that an "alarming scenario" for global food security. [...] The new study, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, combined more than 3,000 observations of the impact of microplastics on plants, taken from 157 studies. Previous research has indicated that microplastics can damage plants in multiple ways. The polluting particles can block sunlight reaching leaves and damage the soils on which the plants depend. When taken up by plants, microplastics can block nutrient and water channels, induce unstable molecules that harm cells and release toxic chemicals, which can reduce the level of the photosynthetic pigment chlorophyll. The researchers estimated that microplastics reduced the photosynthesis of terrestrial plants by about 12% and by about 7% in marine algae, which are at the base of the ocean food web. They then extrapolated this data to calculate the reduction in the growth of wheat, rice and maize and in the production of fish and seafood. Asia was hardest hit by estimated crop losses, with reductions in all three of between 54 million and 177 million tons a year, about half the global losses. Wheat in Europe was also hit hard as was maize in the United States. Other regions, such as South America and Africa, grow less of these crops but have much less data on microplastic contamination. In the oceans, where microplastics can coat algae, the loss of fish and seafood was estimated at between 1m and 24m tonnes a year, about 7% of the total and enough protein to feed tens of millions of people. Further reading: Are Microplastics Bad For Your Health? More Rigorous Science is Needed

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The US will be "central" to solving the climate crisis despite Donald Trump's withdrawal of government support and cash, the president of the next UN climate summit has said. From a report: Andre Correa do Lago, president-designate of the Cop30 summit for the host country, Brazil, hinted that businesses and other organisations in the US could play a constructive role without the White House. "We have no idea of ignoring the US," he told journalists on a call on Friday. "The US is a key country in this exercise. There is the US government, which will limit its participation [but] the US is a country with such amazing technology, amazing innovation -- this is the US that can contribute. The US is a central country for these discussions and solutions." Brazil has also vowed to hold an "ethical stocktake" aimed at examining climate justice issues, for poor and vulnerable people, and to give Indigenous people a key role at the talks. Correa do Lago wrote to all UN countries on Monday, setting out Brazil's expectations that all governments will draw up national plans for steep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions before the conference starts in Belem, a rainforest city at the mouth of the Amazon, in November.

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Global sea ice fell to a record low in February, scientists have said, a symptom of an atmosphere fouled by planet-heating pollutants. From a report: The combined area of ice around the north and south poles hit a new daily minimum in early February and stayed below the previous record for the rest of the month, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on Thursday. "One of the consequences of a warmer world is melting sea ice," said the C3S deputy director, Samantha Burgess. "The record or near-record low sea ice cover at both poles has pushed global sea ice cover to an all-time minimum." The agency found the area of sea ice hit its lowest monthly level for February in the Arctic, at 8% below average, and its fourth-lowest monthly level for February in the Antarctic, at 26% below average. Its satellite observations stretch back to the late 1970s and its historical observations to the middle of the 20th century. Scientists had already observed an extreme heat anomaly in the north pole at the start of February, which caused temperatures to soar more than 20C above average and cross the threshold for ice to melt. They described the latest broken record as "particularly worrying" because ice reflects sunlight and cools the planet. The agency found the area of sea ice hit its lowest monthly level for February in the Arctic, at 8% below average, and its fourth-lowest monthly level for February in the Antarctic, at 26% below average. Its satellite observations stretch back to the late 1970s and its historical observations to the middle of the 20th century.

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Half of the world's climate-heating carbon emissions come from the fossil fuels produced by just 36 companies, analysis has revealed. From a report: The researchers said the 2023 data strengthened the case for holding fossil fuel companies to account for their contribution to global heating. Previous versions of the annual report have been used in legal cases against companies and investors. The report found that the 36 major fossil fuel companies, including Saudi Aramco, Coal India, ExxonMobil, Shell and numerous Chinese companies, produced coal, oil and gas responsible for more than 20bn tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2023. If Saudi Aramco was a country, it would be the fourth biggest polluter in the world after China, the US and India, while ExxonMobil is responsible for about the same emissions as Germany, the world's ninth biggest polluter, according to the data. Global emissions must fall by 45% by 2030 if the world is to have a good chance of limiting temperature rise to 1.5C, the internationally agreed target. However, emissions are still rising, supercharging the extreme weather that is taking lives and livelihoods across the planet. The International Energy Agency has said new fossil fuel projects started after 2021 are incompatible with reaching net zero emissions by 2050. Most of the 169 companies in the Carbon Majors database increased their emissions in 2023, which was the hottest year on record at the time.

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AmiMoJo shares a report: Europe's biggest battery storage project has entered commercial operation in Scotland [alternative source], promising to soak up surplus wind power and prevent turbines being paid to switch off. Zenobe said the first phase of its project at Blackhillock, between Inverness and Aberdeen, was now live with capacity to store enough power to supply 200 megawatts of electricity for two hours. It is due to be expanded to 300 megawatts by next year, enough to supply 3.1 million homes, more than every household in Scotland. The government's Clean Power 2030 action plan sets a target capacity of up to 27 gigawatts of batteries by 2030, a sixfold increase from the 4.5 gigawatts installed today. This huge expansion is seen as critical as Britain builds more renewable wind and solar power, since batteries can store surplus generation for use when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine.

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More than 100,000 seeds from across Africa have been deposited in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, the world's repository for specimens intended to preserve crop diversity in the event of disaster. From a report: Among the latest additions are seeds critical to building climate resilience, such as the tree Faidherbia albida, which turns nitrogen into ammonia and nitrates, and Cordia africana, the Sudan teak, a tree renowned for its strength and durability. The seeds, from 177 different species, were delivered to the Norwegian vault on Tuesday by Dr Eliane Ubalijoro, the chief executive of the Center for International Forestry Research and World Agroforestry (Cifor-Icraf). "For me, seeds are about hope," Ubalijoro said. "They're about moving beyond survival, particularly when you come from places that have gone through really difficult times. When I think of my country of Rwanda and what happened in 1994, seed banks were critical when it came to rebuilding after the genocide." Ubalijoro said countries that had experienced disaster and conflict could emerge as leaders in the fight against climate breakdown.

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Oracle founder Larry Ellison's agricultural technology venture Sensei Ag has largely failed to deliver on its ambitious goals despite costing more than half a billion dollars, more than he spent to purchase Hawaii's Lanai island itself. Eight years after its founding, little of the revolutionary technology Sensei promised - including AI crop breeding, robotic harvesting, and advanced sensors - is being utilized in its six greenhouses on Lanai, according to WSJ. The company has faced numerous setbacks, including greenhouses that weren't built to withstand Lanai's strong winds, solar panels that malfunctioned, and executives with limited agricultural experience. Far from its original mission to "feed the world," Sensei currently grows lettuce and cherry tomatoes primarily for Hawaii's local market, while its Canadian operations supply some East Coast supermarkets. The company has pivoted to focus on developing software and robotics at test centers in Southern California, aiming to eventually license technology packages to other indoor farms.

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More than half the world's countries have no plans to protect 30% of land and sea for nature, despite committing to a global agreement to do so less than three years ago, new analysis shows. From a report: In late 2022, nearly every country signed a once-in-a-decade UN deal to halt the destruction of Earth's ecosystems. It included a headline target to protect nearly a third of the planet for biodiversity by the end of the decade -- a goal known as "30 by 30." But as country leaders gather in Rome to conclude Cop16 negotiations to save nature, analysis of countries' plans by Carbon Brief and the Guardian found that many countries are will fall short. More than half are either pledging to protect less than 30% of their territory or are not setting a numerical target.

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Melting glaciers have caused almost 2cm of sea level rise this century alone, a decades-long study has revealed. From a report: The research shows the world's glaciers collectively lost 6.542tn tonnes of ice between 2000 and 2023, causing an 18mm (0.7in) rise in global sea levels. The world's glaciers lost an average of 273bn tonnes of ice every year -- the equivalent of 30 years of water consumption by the entire global population. The assessment, led by scientists from the University of Edinburgh and the University of Zurich, found that so far this century, glaciers have lost approximately 5% of their total volume. Regional losses were highly variable; the Antarctic and subantarctic islands lost 2% of their volume but central Europe's glaciers lost 39%. "These numbers are staggering. They serve as a reminder that things are changing fast in some regions," said Prof Noel Gourmelen, the co-lead author of the study and personal chair of Earth observation at the University of Edinburgh's school of geosciences. A stark contrast in the amount of ice lost each decade was also discovered, with 36% more ice having melted between 2012 and 2023 compared with the previous decade.

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