European leaders have spent years warning that the continent risked falling behind the U.S., China and Russia in the global contest for economic, technological and military dominance, and officials now believe they have reached that point. The mood darkened over the summer when Europe found itself on the sidelines as Washington and Beijing negotiated a reset of global trade rules, and turned bleak this month when the White House presented a Ukraine cease-fire plan without consulting European capitals. In July, the EU accepted a trade deal allowing the U.S. to impose 15% tariffs without retaliation. President Trump ignored European calls to pressure Moscow before meeting Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August, telling reporters "this is not to do with Europe, Europe's not telling me what to do." Germany has eased its debt brake to pour $580 billion into a decade-long rearmament program, and the EU has set a 2030 rearmament goal -- defense spending across the region is set to exceed $560 billion this year, double what it was a decade ago. "Battle lines for a new world order, based on power, are being drawn right now," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in September. "A new Europe must emerge."

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